Thursday, July 13, 2006


Israel is in turmoil right now. Hizbu'allah has kidnapped two soldiers, killed eight more and we're invading Lebanon in retaliation. Am I disputing the need to do so? No. It is painfully clear that Hizbu'allah is attempting to take the focus off of Gaza and force Israel - actually Olmert and the Army - to make a painful decision. Gaza or Lebanon?

The problem is that it won't work. Olmert already sent in the Northern Command into Lebanon and seems to be intensifying the operation in Gaza to free Gilad. For that I am thankful, it is exactly what he should do. If, as my friend Matt is suggesting, Assad starts attacking Israel within the next few days we might just have a new war on our hands.

I don't believe it will go that far. Assad may be irrational but I don't believe he will start a war that he cannot win coupled with the knowledge that you don't attack a superior enemy when they are operational. You attack when they least expect it - like the Yom Kippur War.

Getting back to the point - I don't believe Olmert's "restrained, but painful" response will be restrained at all. They'll attack and attack hard because the Army won't put up with anything else. They'll go in hard and fast until the world opinion (or just the US) says "Okay, breathe. If they start up again, then do it all again". Olmert may not be the best Prime Minister ever, but he is not stupid. The Israeli public will not put up with the Hizbu'allah antics and so he will use the Army for reeking retribution upon Lebanon. Gaza. And Syria too if they don't want to play nice, and yes if Assad so much as lifts a finger expect to see more than a fly-by of his palace - but I don't believe it will get to missiles.

tzom tov.

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